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project · 2025–2026

THESIS — thematic
investment dashboard.

A live dashboard tracking a portfolio organized by investment thesis — AI infrastructure, defense, biodefense — not individual tickers. Pulls real prices, scores financial headlines with NLP, and runs a Random Forest model to predict 30-day outperformance vs SPY.

live dashboard ↗ backend ↗ frontend ↗
at a glance
Starting capital
$15k
Jan 2023
Peak value
$400k+
3-year thesis return
Tickers tracked
53
across 5 themes
News scored daily
300+
scored per refresh
theme returns
AI InfrastructureNVDA, AMD, TSM, MSFT…
+274.6%
Energy TransitionCEG, VST, NEE, FSLR…
+362.2%
DefenseLMT, RTX, PLTR, KTOS…
+202.9%
HealthcareUNH, TMO, ISRG, DHR…
+0.1%
BiodefenseMRNA, SIGA, ILMN, GILD…
−16.8%

Biodefense initiated Jan 2025 — pre-event positioning ahead of next outbreak cycle.

prediction signals — live

Random Forest classifier trained on 3 years of daily price history. Predicts probability each theme outperforms SPY over next 30 days. Updated weekly.

AI
BUY
72% prob
DEF
HOLD
54% prob
NRG
BUY
68% prob
BIO
HOLD
51% prob
MED
HOLD
48% prob

Signal cards are illustrative — see live values on the dashboard.

how it works
◈

Theme buckets, not tickers

Portfolio organized around investment theses — "AI infrastructure is undersupplied" — not individual stocks. NVDA, AMD, TSM, and MSFT are all expressions of the same thesis.

λ

NLP sentiment on 2,000+ headlines

Every headline from Yahoo Finance RSS, CNBC, WSJ, ProMED, CDC alerts, and Breaking Defense scored daily by FinBERT — fine-tuned on financial text, not generic VADER.

∑

Random Forest prediction

Trained on 3 years of daily price data. Features: 5/20/60-day momentum, realized volatility, theme-vs-SPY relative return. One model per theme, one per ticker.

◉

Biodefense early warning

Monitors ProMED outbreak reports, WHO news, CDC health alerts. Thesis: mRNA platforms compress vaccine development from years to months. SIGA holds the only FDA-approved smallpox antiviral.

stack
pythonfastapiscikit-learnreact yfinancepandasnumpytransformers finbertcohererechartsrender vercelrss feedsapschedulerslowapi
the thesis journal
Jan 2023 — AI Infrastructure
Initiated NVDA. AI training compute will be undersupplied for 3–5 years. GPU shortage = picks-and-shovels. Added MSFT, GOOGL, META as hyperscaler beneficiaries.
Apr 2023 — Defense
Added LMT, RTX. Ukraine conflict exposes Western stockpile depletion — multi-year re-armament cycle. Added PLTR: AI battlefield analytics is structural, not a one-time contract.
Sep 2024 — Energy Transition
Initiated nuclear basket (CEG, VST). AI data center power demand creates sustained need for carbon-free baseload. Thesis: AI → energy scarcity → nuclear.
Jan 2025 — Biodefense & Pandemic
Initiated biodefense basket. CDC tracking elevated hantavirus cases — 38% case fatality rate, no approved antiviral. mRNA platforms compress vaccine timelines from years to months. SIGA holds the only FDA-approved smallpox antiviral (TPOXX).
Mar 2025 — Healthcare Infrastructure
Added TMO, DHR — lab infrastructure is picks-and-shovels for pandemic response and genomics. ABT rapid testing was proven at scale during COVID.